PIMS-CORDS SFU Operations Research Seminar: Sandy Rutherford

The COVID-19 Pandemic placed considerable strain on intensive care units, and the critical care system in British Columbia and worldwide. I will review the critical care system and how it responded to the COVID-19 pandemic. During the first wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic, we developed a simulation model to inform mechanical ventilator access in BC. One of the challenges that we faced is that simulation models are difficult to study under epidemic growth in demand. I will describe approximation methods from queueing theory that we used to address this challenge. Specifically, I will explore the accuracy of three queueing theory approximations under epidemic growth in demand, namely: the pointwise stationary approximation, the modified offered load approximation, and the fixed-point approximation. We found that the fixed-point approximation is the most accurate and a hybrid optimization approach combining the fixed-point approximation with simulation optimization was developed to determine the number of mechanical ventilators required to ensure that at least 95% of patients could access a ventilator immediately during the first wave of the COVOD-19 pandemic. Strengthening the BC critical care system to respond to seasonal respiratory illnesses and future pandemics is a priority of the Ministry of Health. I will describe a large-scale simulation model that we have developed to support this effort and discuss how operations research can contribute to improving quality of care, efficiency, and resiliency in the critical care system.